Three Weeks Out: Midterm Projections, National and New Jersey

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As always, I qualify these projections with the caveat that events could change outcomes.  Case in point: The confirmation of Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. 

A month ago, the Democrats were in striking range to win enough US Senate seats to gain Senate control.  Now, due to the Kavanaugh controversy, all Democrat hopes of gaining Senate control are gone. 

Simply put, the Kavanaugh controversy has by and large strengthened House and Senate campaigns of Republicans in Red states and Democrats in Blue states.   

There are only six Senate races remaining where the outcome is in doubt.   

Four involve Democrat incumbent seats in Red states (Tester in Montana, McCaskill in Missouri, Donnelly in Indiana, Heitkamp in North Dakota), one is a seat being vacated by a Republican in a Red state (Flake in Arizona) and the last is a Democrat incumbent in a Purple state (Nelson in Florida).  The outcome of the race in Purple State Nevada for the seat presently held by Republican Dean Heller is no longer in doubt: Heller wins. 

Projection:  The Republicans will win the Senate seats currently held by the Democrats in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana.  The Democrats will not pick up any Senate seats currently held by Republicans.  Net GOP gain:  Three seats, making the line-up in the next Senate 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats. 

By contrast, in the races for the House of Representatives, Election Day looks like a day of massive celebration for the Democrats. 

According to the Cook