Pending Home Sales Slip, But the Broader Story Remains the Same

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has spent more than two years stuck in a rut, held back by affordability constraints and the lingering impact of elevated mortgage rates. April’s update didn’t do the market any favors, but it also didn’t tell us anything particularly new.

Pending sales dropped by 6.3% in April, marking the sharpest monthly decline since mid-2022. The index fell to 71.3, its third-lowest level on record, and is now 2.5% lower than a year ago.

That sounds like a big move—and it is, on paper—but zooming out, the broader trend remains one of stagnation. We’re still very much bouncing around at the bottom of a severely depressed range that’s held steady for…