How will mortgage rates react to US bombing of Iran?

The backdrop: Calmer mortgage rates

First things first: mortgage rates have been very calm lately, even with last week featuring a significant amount of economic data, a Fed meeting, and both the President and the FHFA director calling for the Fed chairman to resign. With all these events last week, the bond market acted very mildly and mortgage rates didn’t move much either.

Overall, this year has generally had less volatility in rates compared to previous years. Here is the mortgage data from Freddie Mac, showing the range of the 30-year mortgage rate this year versus the past few years.

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%

The most significant…