How much lower can mortgage rates go after Friday’s jobs report?
By: Logan Mohtashami | Published: 2025-08-03 14:47:00 | Source: www.housingwire.com
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
The 10-year yield has fluctuated between approximately 4.79% and 3.87% this year, considering overnight trading within that range. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have varied from 7.25% to 6.50%. So, what comes next? If the labor data gets weaker, then the 10-year yield can head toward 3.80% with mortgage rates heading near 6% for sure, but we need more weakness in economic data or a more dovish Fed.
In a special weekend episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast, I discuss my perspective on the labor data, which has been declining for 19 months but hasn’t yet reached a breaking point. The key…
