No FOMC cut in July, nearly all economists surveyed say

Despite speculation following the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting that a rate cut could come as early as this month, most economists still expect the central bank to hold off until September or later.

Only one respondent in Wolters Kluwer’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, conducted July 7 and 8, after the stronger-than-expected June jobs report, forecast a cut at the upcoming July 30–31 meeting. That’s down from 9% in the June poll, which was conducted just before the last FOMC decision but released concurrently.

Fed rate cuts do not directly affect mortgage pricing, but investors in the 10-year Treasury react to the broader implications.

When do economists expect the Fed to act?

September remains the most likely timing for the next cut, with 55% of survey panelists…