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Traders reel in Fed cut bets as strong job data drags on bonds

Traders reel in Fed cut bets as strong job data drags on bonds

By: | Published: 2025-06-06 15:32:00 | Source: www.nationalmortgagenews.com

Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. 

The Friday selloff lifted yields across maturities by as much as 10 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to Fed rate changes. The benchmark 10-year note’s rate rose eight basis points to 4.47%, and yields across the spectrum once again exceeded 4%. 

READ MORE: Mortgage rates move lower for first time in four weeks

Interest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday. Fewer than two rate cuts are fully priced in for the year.

“You are seeing a little bit of the bond market reaction here of pricing out a…

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